The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to assess the short term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1% of social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage point, which, given the share of social spending to GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to the one of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending in Health and Unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30356.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Fiscal Policy; Social Spending; Economic Activity.;
Other versions of this item:
- Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 129-152, 03.
- H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003.
"The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
- Roberto Perotti, 2005.
"Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Sutherland, Alan, 1997.
"Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
- Alan Sutherland, . "Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?," Discussion Papers 95/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2010.
"Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion,"
Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 503-530, December.
- António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence, and Discretion," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 659, OECD Publishing.
- António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responiveness, Persistence and Discretion," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/50, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence and discretion," Working Paper Series 0954, European Central Bank.
- King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990.
"Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium,"
RCER Working Papers
244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000.
"Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dan Black & Kermit Daniel & Seth Sanders, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Conditions on Participation in Disability Programs: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 27-50, March.
- Ruhm, Christopher J. & Black, William E., 2002.
"Does drinking really decrease in bad times?,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 659-678, July.
- Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2007.
"Labor market shocks and retirement: Do government programs matter?,"
in: Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Public Policy and Retirement, pages 1902-1919
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coile, Courtney C. & Levine, Phillip B., 2007. "Labor market shocks and retirement: Do government programs matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1902-1919, November.
- Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2006. "Labor Market Shocks and Retirement: Do Government Programs Matter?," NBER Working Papers 12559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baotai Wang, 2005. "Effects of government expenditure on private investment: Canadian empirical evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 493-504, 09.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G�nter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & Ren� Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lind� & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Ca, 2012.
"Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
- Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in â€˜t Veld & RenÃ© Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & GÃ¼nter Coenen &, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
- David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise In The Disability Rolls And The Decline In Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 157-205, February.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Stabilization effects of social spending: Empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 34-48, March.
- Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
- Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2008. "Social spending and automatic stabilizers in the OECD," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 23, pages 715-756, October.
- Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects"," NIPE Working Papers 6/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Patrice Ollivaud & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot, 2006. "New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 482, OECD Publishing.
- Duncan McVicar, 2006. "Why do disability benefit rolls vary between regions? A review of the evidence from the USA and the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 519-533.
- Bernardi, L., 2012. "Heterogeneity of taxation in EA Member countries and some implications for EA fiscal governance," MPRA Paper 40050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sola, Sergio, 2011.
"Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal: an approach based on U.S. real-time data,"
Working Paper Series
1361, European Central Bank.
- Jacopo Cimadomo, Sebastian Hauptmeier, Sergio Sola, 2011. "Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: an Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data," IHEID Working Papers 12-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.