International Relative Prices and Civil Wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Theory and Evidence over the period (1995-2006)
AbstractThis paper presents first a theoretical model of conflict between two agents characterized by a two-sector economy. In a contested sector two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice-cream’. Eventually, tradable goods made of butter and ice-cream produced by conflicting parties are both sold to the Rest of the world. Therefore, the opportunity cost of conflict depends also on relative profitability of contested and uncontested production. In particular, productivity of uncontested production and profitability of contested sectors are countervailing forces. The empirical section focused on a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1995-2006. Results are not fully conclusive. However, there is robust evidence that prices of manufactures (interpreted as the uncontested ice-cream) are negatively associated with the likelihood of a civil war. Eventually, international price of manufactures is also associated with a higher GDP per capita growth rate. The concluding remark seems to be that an increase in world prices of manufactures would make civil wars less likely.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29761.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Theoretical model of conflict; Civil war; resource curse; butter guns and ice-cream; structure of the economy; commodity prices; MUV; panel probit analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2011-04-16 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2011-04-16 (Development)
- NEP-INT-2011-04-16 (International Trade)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stergios Skaperdas, 1996.
"Contest success functions (*),"
Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 283-290.
- Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2008.
"Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum,"
17315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-15, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2007-15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Baland, Jean-Marie & Francois, Patrick, 2000. "Rent-seeking and resource booms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 527-542, April.
- Polachek Solomon W., 1999. "Conflict and Trade: An Economics Approach to Political International Interactions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, April.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2007:i:17:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Skaperdas, Stergios & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1996. "Can the shadow of the future harm cooperation?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 355-372, May.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010.
"International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, 05.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007. "International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Papers 1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
- Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas, 2006.
"Economics of Conflict: An Overview,"
050623, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
- Raul Caruso, 2007.
"Continuing Conflict and Stalemate: A note,"
AccessEcon, vol. 4(17), pages 1-8.
- Anderton, Charles H & Anderton, Roxane A & Carter, John R, 1999. "Economic Activity in the Shadow of Conflict," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 166-79, January.
- Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2006.
"Globalization and Domestic Conflict,"
050601, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2005. "Globalization and Domestic Conflict," International Trade 0507005, EconWPA.
- Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2005. "Globalization and Domestic Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 1510, CESifo Group Munich.
- Johannes Munster & Klaas Staal, 2011. "War with Outsiders Makes Peace Inside," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(2), pages 91-110, April.
- Michael Hicks & Major Jeffrey S Smith, 2008.
"Warfare, Civil Conflict and the Spatial Impacts on Domestic Investment: Evidence from South America, 1950-2000,"
200801, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2008.
- Hicks Michael J. & Smith Jeff, 2009. "Warfare, Civil Conflict and the Spatial Impacts on Domestic Investment: Evidence from South America, 1950-2000," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, November.
- Chen, John-Ren & Stocker, Herbert, 1997. "Composite commodities and the Prebisch-Singer thesis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1863-1871, November.
- Timothy J. Besley & Torsten Persson, 2008.
"The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
14585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Besley, Timothy J. & Persson, Torsten, 2008. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 005, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Raul Caruso, 2004. "A Trade Institution as a Peaceful Institution?," Others 0406003, EconWPA, revised 15 Dec 2004.
- Torvik, Ragnar, 2002. "Natural resources, rent seeking and welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 455-470, April.
- Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2006. "De Facto Political Power and Institutional Persistence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 325-330, May.
- Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
- Matthew J. Baker, 2003. "An Equilibrium Conflict Model of Land Tenure in Hunter-Gatherer Societies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 124-173, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.