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Acceleration, Stagnation and Crisis: the Role of Policies and Institutions

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  • Jerzmanowski, Michal

Abstract

In this paper we study long run economic growth as a sequence of accelerations, slowdowns and crises, and estimate the role of institutions and macroeconomic policies in determining this sequence. We analyze the joint effect of policies and institutions on the frequency of the four growth regimes: stable growth, stagnation, crisis and miracle-like fast growth. The results confirm the importance of institutions for growth but also show that macro-policies; inflation, trade openness, size of government and real exchange rate overvaluation matter for the growth process, even after controlling for institutional quality. Importantly, some policies affect regimes differentially; for example, trade makes episodes of fast growth more likely but also increases the frequency of crises. Finally, the effects of policies are nonlinear and dependent on the quality of institutions. For example, government spending reduces growth in countries with good institutions but can increase it when institutions are weak.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29666.

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Date of creation: 16 Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29666

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Keywords: economic growth; growth accelerations; macroeconomic policies; institutions;

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References

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  1. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman, 2005. "Openness can be good for growth : the role of policy complementarities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3763, The World Bank.
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  5. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Baccheta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
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  8. Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2006. "Empirics of hills, plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 357-385, December.
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  10. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Daron Acemoglu, 2005. "Politics and Economics in Weak and Strong States," NBER Working Papers 11275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Political regime change, economic liberalization and growth accelerations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 93-115, January.
  2. David Cuberes & Michał Jerzmanowski, 2009. "Democracy, Diversification and Growth Reversals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(540), pages 1270-1302, October.

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