Flattening of the Phillips Curve and the Role of Oil Price: An Unobserved Components Model for the USA and Australia
AbstractWe use the unobserved components model of Harvey (1989 and 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve (PC) for the USA and Australia, by augmenting it with oil prices. We found that the level coefficient of inflation and the coefficient of demand pressure have declined and contributed to the flattening of the Phillips curve. But the coefficient of oil prices has increased and has partly offset these effects. Therefore, oil prices are likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29606.
Date of creation: 06 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Unobserved components; Harvey; USA; Australia; Flattening of the Phillips curve and Oil prices;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-03-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ENE-2011-03-26 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010.
"Understanding the flattening Phillips curve,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
- Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005.
"Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model,"
243, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, 02.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 05-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model," Economics Working Papers 912, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
- Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 11806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct13.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
- Roberts, John M, 2006.
"Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics,"
812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010.
Handbook of Monetary Economics,
in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007.
NBER Working Papers
13147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harvey, A., 2008.
"Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Andrew Harvey, 2011. "Modelling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 7-17.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1991.
"Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, December.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, December.
- Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
- Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
- Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010.
"Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.