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Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland

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  • Lyziak, Tomasz

Abstract

There are problems with using probability quantification methods when the scaling factor applied in those methods becomes non-positive. The way of adjusting them proposed in this note and verified empirically allows using them in such circumstances. The results for the euro area and Ireland suggest that the recent financial crisis made consumer inflation perception and expectations go down, however it did not create deflationary expectations in this groups of economic agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyziak, Tomasz, 2011. "Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland," MPRA Paper 28900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28900
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
    2. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-331, August.
    3. Mitchell, James, 2002. "The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 101-107, June.
    4. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
    5. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 353-369, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Expectations; Survey Data; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions

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