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Trade and GDP Growth in Morocco: Short-run or Long-run Causality?

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  • bouoiyour, jamal

Abstract

This study utilizes cointegration and Granger-causality tests to examine the relationship between trade and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1960-2000 using the VEC model. The result indicate that both exports and imports enter with positive signs in the cointegration equation. The results show that imports and exports Granger caused GDP and imports Granger caused exports. These results can be interpreted as a causality from the foreign sector to the domestic growth of Morocco. Import expansion increases exports that affect the GDP growth.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28859/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28859.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Publication status: Published in Brazilian Journal of Business and Economics n° 2.Vol 3(2003): pp. 14-21
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28859

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Related research

Keywords: GDP; Exports; Imports; Granger Causality; Cointegration;

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References

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  1. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, 1994. "What does liberalisation do for exports and growth?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 152-174, March.
  2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Serge Rey, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 302-334.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
  5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  6. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  7. Balassa, Bela, 1988. "The Lessons of East Asian Development: An Overview," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(3), pages S273-90, Supplemen.
  8. George K. Zestos & Xiangnan Tao, 2002. "Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 859-874, April.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. bouoiyour, jamal, 2007. "The Determining factors of foreign firect investment in Morocco," MPRA Paper 37030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Walkenhorst, Peter & Malouche, Mariem, 2006. "Trade Policy and Export Performance in Morocco," MPRA Paper 23119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. bouoiyour, jamal, 2006. "Productivité du travail, capital humain et écart technologique dans les industries manufacturières marocaines
    [Labor productivity, human capital and technology gap in manufacturing Moroccan]
    ," MPRA Paper 37035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2012. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis," Working Papers CIE 52, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  5. World Bank, 2006. "Fostering Higher Growth and Employment in the Kingdom of Morocco," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7114.
  6. repec:pdn:wpaper:52 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. repec:pra:mprapa:37325 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2005. "Partenariat Euro-marocain et dynamique des investissements directs étrangers
    [Euro-Moroccan partnership and dynamic investment foreign direct]
    ," MPRA Paper 45992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2007. "The determining factors of foreign direct investment in Morocco," MPRA Paper 37326, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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