Role of Rules of Thumb in Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrival: A Case Study of India
AbstractThe paper examines forecast performances of some popular rules of thumb vis-à-vis more sophisticated time series models in the specific context of foreign tourist arrival in India. Among all forecasting approaches attempted in the study, exponential smoothing (ES) and ARIMA provided the best short-term forecasts, closely followed by autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models. These results are largely in agreement with cross-country findings on tourism forecast. Foreign tourist arrival data in India, however, displayed a regularity that did not change substantially even in the face of major global or local events. Given the regularity, our study suggests that rules of thumb can play an important practical part in short-term forecasts of tourist arrival in India. Our study, however, reveals that forecasts from such thumb rules could be improved substantially through simple residual corrections and incorporation of other information available in the public domain.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28515.
Date of creation: 31 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Tourism; Tourist Arrival; Forecasting; Rules of Thumb; Exponential Smoothing; ARIMA; ADL;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2011-02-12 (Forecasting)
- NEP-TUR-2011-02-12 (Tourism Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
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