Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The effects of Minsky moment and stock prices on the US Taylor Rule

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paradiso, Antonio
  • Rao, B. Bhaskara

Abstract

This paper estimates the US Taylor rule for the period 1997 – 2010, with monthly data, a period characterized by two recessions and asset markets turbulences. Its novelties are that, firstly, we follow Weise and Barbera (2009) and include in the Taylor rule credit spreads (a variable which captures the so-called Minsky Moment) and a modified Wicksellian neutral interest rate. Secondly, we also include a variable to capture the effects of stock price movements. Thirdly, we find that all the variables in the US Taylor rule are I(1) in levels. Therefore, we estimate this equation with the time series methods of unit roots and cointegration, which is perhaps a novelty for the US Taylor rule. We find that there is a well defined cointegrating equation for the US Taylor rule embodying Wicksellian-Minsky effects and stock market movements. Secondly, the Federal Reserve system seems to give relatively a much larger weight to the objective of controlling inflation than to output and unemployment.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27840/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27840.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 02 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27840

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Taylor rule; Minsky Moment; Wicksellian interest rate; Stock prices; Cointegration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. D. A. Peel & I. Paya & I. Venetis, 2004. "Estimates of US monetary policy rules with allowance for changes in the output gap," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 601-605.
  2. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Singh, Rup & Kumar, Saten, 2008. "Do we need time series econometrics," MPRA Paper 10530, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2008.
  3. Alina Carare & Robert Tchaidze, 2008. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them? ," Working Papers 006-08, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.
  4. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  6. Laurence Ball & Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "The Fed and the New Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive 465, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. David Beckworth & Kenneth Moon & J. Holland Toles, 2010. "Monetary policy and corporate bond yield spreads," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1139-1144.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. David Vera, 2009. "How robust is the Fed reaction function to changes in the output-gap specification?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1059-1065.
  11. Montalvo, Jose G., 1995. "Comparing cointegrating regression estimators: Some additional Monte Carlo results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 229-234, June.
  12. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  13. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
  14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  15. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "The Fed's exit strategy for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun14.
  16. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.