Biases in calculating dumping Margins: The case of cyclical products
AbstractA dumping investigation involves comparing export prices with a “normal value” loosely defined as the price in the exporter’s domestic market observed in the course of normal trade. However, domestic sales with prices below production costs are excluded from the computation of a normal value; thus increasing the probability products with cyclical prices will get caught with positive dumping margins although there are no intentions to dump. The objective of the paper is to illustrate how price cycles impact the magnitude of estimated dumping margins. The empirical analysis focuses on Canadian hog exports to the U.S. and U.S. potato exports to Canada. The period and amplitude of each price cycles are estimated. The analysis starts with the assumption that export and domestic prices are equal so no true dumping occurs. Margins are then calculated based on rules that exclude below cost sales. The resulting average dumping margins for Canadian hogs and U.S. potato exports are respectively 11.5 and 5.9 percent. Biases in dumping margins depend on the nature of the cycle, the period of investigations, and the estimate of the cost of production.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2745.
Date of creation: 14 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Anti-dumping; frequency estimation; price cycles; hog/pork trade disputes; potato antidumping case;
Other versions of this item:
- James Rude & Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2009. "Biases in Calculating Dumping Margins: The Case of Cyclical Products," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 122-142.
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
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