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Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Performance: Testing for Dynamic Linkages with a Known Structural Break

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  • Rashid, Abdul

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions between four macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Pakistan, using cointegration and Granger causality tests that are robust to structural breaks. The results strongly suggest cointegration between the stock prices and macroeconomic variables viz. consumer prices, industrial production, exchange rate and the market rate of interest. Estimates of bivariate error-correction models reveal that there is long-run bidirectional causation between the stock prices and all the said macroeconomic variables with the exception of consumer prices that only lead to stock prices. The results also provide some evidence that the stock prices Granger-caused by changes in interest rates in the short run. However, the analysis is unable to explore any short-run causation between the stock prices and the remaining three macroeconomic variables. It may therefore be stated that the association between the health of the stock market in the sense of a rising share prices and the health of the economy is only a long-run phenomenon.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26937.

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Date of creation: 15 Jan 2008
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Publication status: Published in Saving and Development XXXII.1(2008): pp. 77-102
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26937

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Related research

Keywords: Stock Returns; Exchange Rates; Interest Rates; Industrial Output; Prices; Economic Activity; Structural Breaks; Additive-Outlier Model;

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References

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  3. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2001. "Macroeconomic influences on the stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 33-49, March.
  4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  5. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  6. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
  7. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate Policy on Real GDP in Brazil: A VAR Model," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 6(1), February.
  8. Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Octomber.
  10. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," DEA Working Papers 10, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
  11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550.
  13. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-70, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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