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Tourism Demand in Catalonia: Detecting External Economic Factors

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  • Claveria, Oscar
  • Datzira, Jordi

Abstract

There is a lack of studies on tourism demand in Catalonia. To fill the gap, this paper focuses on detecting the macroeconomic factors that determine tourism demand in Catalonia. We also analyse the relation between these factors and tourism demand. Despite the strong seasonal component and the outliers in the time series of some countries, overnight stays give a better indication of tourism demand in Catalonia than the number of tourists. The degree of linear association between the macroeconomic variables and tourism demand is also higher when using quarterly rather than monthly data. Finally, there are notable differences between the results obtained for the different countries analysed. These results indicate that the best way to model tourism demand in Catalonia is to specify a quarterly model of overnight stays, differentiating between an aggregate demand model for the total number of tourists and specific models for each of the countries analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Claveria, Oscar & Datzira, Jordi, 2008. "Tourism Demand in Catalonia: Detecting External Economic Factors," MPRA Paper 25303, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25303
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
    2. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
    3. Anonymous, 1965. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 1052-1056, October.
    4. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    5. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    6. Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2001. "Panel Data and Tourism: A Case Study of Tenerife," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(1), pages 75-88, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Multiple-input multiple-output vs. single-input single-output neural network forecasting”," IREA Working Papers 201502, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    2. Biljana Petrevska, 2014. "Measuring Seasonal Concentration Of Tourism Demand: Comparative Study Of See Countries," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 45-53, December.
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Regional Forecasting with Support Vector Regressions: The Case of Spain”," IREA Working Papers 201507, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    4. Asgary, Ali & Rezvani, Mohammad Reza & Mehregan, Nader, 2011. "Local Residents’ Preferences for Second Home Tourism Development Policies: A Choice Experiment nalysis," MPRA Paper 29703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Osti, Linda & Santifaller, Esther, 2011. "Second Homes and the Need for Policy Planning," MPRA Paper 29835, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism demand in Catalonia; external economic factors; expectations; descriptive analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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