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India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective

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  • Utsav, Kumar

Abstract

Age structure and its dynamics are critical in understanding the impact of population growth on a country’s growth prospects. Using state-level data from India, we show that the pace of demographic transition varies across states, and that these differences are likely to be exacerbated over the period 2011-2026. We show that the so-called BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) are likely to see a continuing increase in the share of the working-age population in total population. The BIMARU states are expected to contribute 58% of the increase in India’s working-age population. The BIMARU states have traditionally been the slow-growing states and have performed poorly on different accounts of social and physical infrastructure. Whether India can turn demographic dividend into a boon or whether the dividend will become a bane will critically depend on the ability of the BIMARU states to exploit the bulge in the working-age population.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24922.

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Date of creation: 02 Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24922

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Keywords: Demographic dividend; economic growth; India; population growth; working-age population;

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  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2005. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," PGDA Working Papers, Program on the Global Demography of Aging 0105, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2011. "The Service Sector as India's Road to Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 16757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar & Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "India's Patterns of Development: What Happened, What Follows," NBER Working Papers 12023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
  5. T. Ravi Kumar, 2002. "The Impact of Regional Infrastructure Investment in India," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 194-200.
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Cited by:
  1. Utsav Kumar & Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "India's Growth in the 2000s: Four Facts," Working Paper Series, Peterson Institute for International Economics WP11-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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