Modeling Long-Term Memory Effect in Stock Prices: A Comparative Analysis with GPH Test and Daubechies Wavelets
AbstractLong-term memory effect in stock prices might be captured, if any, with alternative models. Though Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) test model the long memory with the OLS estimator, a new approach based on wavelets analysis provide WOLS estimator for the memory effect. This article examines the long-term memory of the Istanbul Stock Index with the Daubechies-20, Daubechies-12, the Daubechies-4 and the Haar wavelets and compares the results of the WOLS estimators with that of OLS estimator based on the Geweke and Porter-Hudak test. While the results of the GPH test imply that the stock returns are memoryless, fractional integration parameters based on the Daubechies wavelets display that there is an explicit long-memory effect in the stock returns. The research results have both methodological and practical crucial conclusions. On the theoretical side, the wavelet based OLS estimator is superior in modeling the behaviours of the stock returns in emerging markets where nonlinearities and high volatility exist due to their chaotic natures. For practical aims, on the other hand, the results show that the Istanbul Stock Exchange is not in the weak-form efficient because the prices have memories that are not reflected in the prices, yet.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2481.
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Long-term memory; Wavelets; Stock prices; GPH test;
Other versions of this item:
- Alper Ozun & Atilla Cifter, 2008. "Modeling long-term memory effect in stock prices: A comparative analysis with GPH test and Daubechies wavelets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 38-48, March.
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-04-09 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2007-04-09 (Econometric Time Series)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 02-3, Bank of Canada.
- Jensen, Mark J., 2000.
"An alternative maximum likelihood estimator of long-memory processes using compactly supported wavelets,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 361-387, March.
- Mark J. Jensen, 1997. "An Alternative Maximum Likelihood Estimator of Long-Memeory Processes Using Compactly Supported Wavelets," Econometrics, EconWPA 9709002, EconWPA.
- Nason, G.P. & von Sachs, R., 1999. "Wavelets in Time Series Analysis," Papers, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique 9901, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
- Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996.
"Long-term dependence in stock returns,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
- Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996. "Long Term Dependence in Stock Returns," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 314., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tkacz Greg, 2001.
"Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter,
De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, April.
- Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 00-5, Bank of Canada.
- Patrick M. Crowley, 2005.
"An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists,"
GE, Growth, Math methods, EconWPA
- Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor & Ronnie Sircar, 2007. "Estimating the Fractal Dimension of the S&P 500 Index using Wavelet Analysis," Papers math/0703834, arXiv.org.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.