A Bayesian Markov Chain Approach Using Proportions Labour Market Data for Greek Regions
AbstractThis paper focuses on Greek labour market dynamics at a regional base, which comprises of 16 provinces, as defined by NUTS levels 1 and 2 (Eurostat, 2008), using Markov Chains for proportions data for the first time in the literature. We apply a Bayesian approach, which employs a Monte Carlo Integration procedure that uncovers the entire empirical posterior distribution of transition probabilities from full employment to part employment, unemployment and economically unregistered unemployment and vice a versa. Our results show that there are disparities in the transition probabilities across regions, implying that the convergence of the Greek labour market at a regional base is far from being considered as completed. However, some common patterns are observed as regions in the south of the country exhibit similar transition probabilities between different states of the labour market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24637.
Date of creation: 19 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Greek Regions; Employment; Unemployment; Markov Chains.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2010-09-11 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-LAB-2010-09-11 (Labour Economics)
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