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Effets Non Linéaires de l'Inflation sur la Croissance dans l'UEMOA
[Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Growth in the WAEMU]

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  • Combey, Adama
  • Nubukpo, Kako

Abstract

The monetary policy conducted by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) faces many challenges, including the need to fight against inflation, which is driven mainly by the volatility of commodity prices on international markets. It is also fall to common criticisms about the lack of economic growth objective in her mandate as developing countries central bank in among the poorest in the world. It therefore not immune to reflection on the existence of a dilemma "inflation-growth" it would, consciously or unconsciously involved. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the existence of a non-linear relationship between inflation and the economic growth within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and to determine the inflation threshold at which a trade-off between inflation and growth is effective. From a threshold effects dynamic panel model, the study shows that the optimal level of inflation in the WAEMU zone is 8.08%. This result raises the question of the relevance of the standard deduction of 3% under the convergence criteria of the WAEMU zone. In addition, the inclusion of such a result is likely to help the BCEAO in the definition and conduct of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23542.

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Date of creation: 28 Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23542

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Keywords: Inflation; Croissance; Politique monétaire; Effets de seuil; Panel dynamique; UEMOA.;

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  1. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 89-105, May.
  2. David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
  4. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 2004. "Bilan de l'intégration monétaire dans l'UMOA," Working Papers 200418, CERDI.
  6. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  7. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
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