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Central bank intervention, sterilization and monetary independence: the case of Pakistan

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  • Waheed, Muhammad

Abstract

This paper analyzes the response of the State bank of Pakistan—the central bank, to foreign exchange inflows for the period of 2001:1 to 2006:8. In this context, we estimated sterilization and offset coefficients using vector autoregression (VAR) model to account for the issue of endogeneity of domestic credit with the foreign exchange interventions. In addition, the paper also analyzes the role of foreign and domestic interest rate differentials in pulling in or pushing out of these foreign exchange flows. We found that the offset coefficient is very small and insignificant (0.16) implying that changes in credit resulted in very minimal offsetting reserve flows. The study found out that for the sample period, SBP only partially sterilized the inflows with magnitude of coefficient at (0.50) confirming the stylized facts. Results also indicate that inflows were neither pulled into the country due to high domestic interest rates due to some domestic policy nor they are pushed into Pakistan owing to low interest rates abroad.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2328.

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Date of creation: 16 Mar 2007
Date of revision: Mar 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2328

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Keywords: Sterilization; Monetary independence; VAR;

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  1. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1998. "“Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal with the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows,”," MPRA Paper 7123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1984. "On the monetary-macro dynamics of Colombia and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 183-201.
  6. Blejer, Mario I & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1981. "A Monetary Approach to the Crawling-Peg System: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(1), pages 132-51, February.
  7. Olcay Yucel Emir & Almila Karasoy & Kursat Kunter, 2000. "Monetary Policy Reaction Function In Turkey," Discussion Papers 0005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Miller, Norman C & Askin, Sherry S, 1976. "Monetary Policy and the Balance of Payments in Brazil and Chile," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 227-38, May.
  9. Asad Jan & Ather Elahi & M. A. Zahid, 2005. "Managing Foreign Exchange Inflows: An Analysis of Sterilisation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 777-792.
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Cited by:
  1. Lim, Ewe Ghee & Goh, SooKhoon, 2011. "Is Malaysia exempted from impossible trinity: empirical evidence from 1991-2009," MPRA Paper 30804, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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