Нестабильность Демократии В Странах, Богатых Ресурсами
[Instability of Democracy in Resource Abundant Countries]
AbstractWe analyze data on sustainability of democratic regimes in resource rich countries and suggest a two-period model to explain why resource abundance may lead to instability of democracy in some countries, but does not create any difficulties for democratic system in other ones. Our central idea is as follows. If a country is abundant by point resources, this creates a prerequisite for resource owners to have dominant economic power. If institutions are weak under democracy, the economic power may be converted into political one. Resource owners («oligarchs») can thrust their preferred decisions on a parliament, bribing politicians. This creates a base for a potential Autocrat's strategy to get power. Rate of resource rent tax is considered as the only policy instrument in our simple model. The tax affects the income of a representative voter. Choosing a tax rate, Autocrat competes with conventional Politician (a representative political party) for the office. Our model takes into account the fact that the actual Autocrat's policy may be different from the announced one. If the difference between the two policies is big, then the public may rise up and throw the Autocrat down. Our main conclusions from the model exploration are as follows. The probability of democracy preservation is decreasing in the amount of resources, if the institutional quality is low enough. It is independent of resources and is determined only by cultural characteristics of the society, if the institutional quality is higher than the threshold. The level of the threshold, however, is positively dependent on the resource amount. These effects are consequences of the optimal Autocrat policy: the larger is the amount of resources, the stronger are Oligarch's incentives (inspired by Autocrat's policy) to bribe politicians.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22840.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in HSE Economic Journal 2.12(2008): pp. 176-200
resource abundance; resource curse; democracy; autocracy; elections; political stability;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A & Verdier, Thierry, 2003.
"Kleptocracy and Divide-and-Rule: A Model of Personal Rule,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson & Thierry Verdier, 2003. "Kleptocracy and Divide-and-Rule: A Model of Personal Rule," NBER Working Papers 10136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stijns, Jean-Philippe C., 2001.
"Natural Resource Abundance And Economic Growth Revisited,"
Berkeley Economics Dissertations-in-Progress Series
25127, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Stijns, Jean-Philippe C., 2005. "Natural resource abundance and economic growth revisited," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 107-130, June.
- Jean-Philippe Stijns, 2001. "Natural Resource Abundance And Economic Growth Revisited," Development and Comp Systems 0103001, EconWPA.
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004.
"Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in A Young Democracy Setting,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1301-1338, November.
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2003. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting," Working Papers w0024, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting," Economics Working Papers 0047, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
- James A. Robinson & Ragnar Torvik & Thierry Verdier, 2003.
"Politcal Foundations of the Resource Curse,"
DELTA Working Papers
2003-33, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2007. "Democratization, Quality of Institutions and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 19152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1996. "Property and Contract Rights in Autocracies and Democracies," MPRA Paper 25720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2002.
"Institutions and the resource curse,"
Development and Comp Systems
- Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2004. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_012, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Mehlum, Halvor & Moene, Karl-Ove & Torvik, Ragnar, 2003. "Institutions and the resource curse," Memorandum 29/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2002. "Institutions and the resource curse," GE, Growth, Math methods 0210004, EconWPA.
- Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. " Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September.
- Torvik, Ragnar, 2002. "Natural resources, rent seeking and welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 455-470, April.
- Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
- Michael Alexeev & Robert Conrad, 2009. "The Elusive Curse of Oil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 586-598, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.