Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Estimation, Analysis and Projection of India’s GDP

Contents:

Author Info

  • Daga, Ugam Raj
  • Das, Rituparna
  • Maheshwari, Bhishma

Abstract

Gross domestic product or GDP, tells us the country’s current aggregate production of goods and services. It is often considered the best measure of how well the economy is performing. GDP summarizes the aggregate of all economic activities in a given period of time. In any economy, however, goods and services produced are not homogenous. It is not possible to add, for example, 10 barrels of petroleum with 10 million matric tons of wheat. So, as a trick, quantities and volumes of all respective goods and services are multiplied by their prices and then summed up. This gives the money value of GDP. Prices however include indirect business taxes (IBT) i.e. sales taxes and excise duties. So this GDP is not a true measure of the productive activities in the economy. In order to get a true measure of GDP we deduct IBT from GDP. This is called GDP at factor cost. For all practical purposes the government uses data on GDP at factor cost. The government of India has started Economic Reform program following the guidelines of IMF and World Bank with a number of ends keeping in view, one of which is that this program would boost up the annual growth of GDP through liberalizing trade. The philosophy of comparative advantage tells that free trade can increase the GDP of the trading countries. GDP of India is found to be a stationary process. It gives a result contrary to the belief that economic reform causes a boost in the GDP. It gives however an adjusted squared 'R' as high as 99.7%. All the ‘t’ values are found highly significant. While plotted on graph, the estimated GDP line just coincides with the actual line. So this estimation can be used for the purpose of GDP forecasting. This model has tracked well the path of past movements in the value of the variable. The sector comprising Trade, Transport, Storage and Communication is found to contribute the maximum and the sector comprising Financing, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services is found to contribute the minimum to the GDP trend under study.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22830/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22830.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22830

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: GDP; Forecasting; Trend; Stationary;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sinha, Pankaj & Gupta, Sushant & Randev, Nakul, 2010. "Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession," MPRA Paper 26539, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.