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Financial integration in emerging market economies

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Author Info
Pasricha, Gurnain

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Abstract

This paper analyzes de-facto integration in some Emerging Market Economies based on behavior of deviations from Covered Interest Parity in the last 10 years. A price-based measure of de-facto integration provides crucial information for answering policy questions related to impact of capital openness and of effectiveness of controls. An Asymmetric Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive model is used to estimate bands of speculative inaction. The estimated bands follow the pattern expected, and reveal a rational market in the sense that deviations from parity are self correcting. The paper uses information from the estimated models to construct a new index of de-facto integration.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2257.

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Date of creation: 10 Apr 2008
Date of revision: 10 Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2257

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Related research
Keywords: Covered Interest Parity; Threshold Autoregression; Financial Integration; Integration Index; Emerging Markets;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2003. "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," NBER Working Papers 10047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," NBER Working Papers 12484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Isabel Vieira, 2003. "Evaluating capital mobility in the EU: a new approach using swaps data," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 514-532, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie David Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," IMF Working Papers 04/73, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Branson, William H, 1969. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 1028-35, Nov./Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-70, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2006. "Ineffective Controls On Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil In The Nineties," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 58, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2005. "Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 11640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
  19. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening and Development: Evidence and Policy Controversies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 65-70, May. [Downloadable!]
  20. Mark E. Wohar & Nathan S. Balke, 1998. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 535-559. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Mark P. Taylor & Elena Tchernykh Branson, 2004. "Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Singh , Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets," MPRA Paper 13630, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration:Evidence Using a New Index," Working Papers 242009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2008. "Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets and Capital Controls: A Model and a Test," MPRA Paper 12125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. A. Prasad & Charles Frederick Kramer & Hélène Poirson, 2008. "Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization: The Case of India," IMF Working Papers 08/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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