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Financial integration in emerging market economies

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Author Info
Pasricha, Gurnain

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Abstract

This paper analyzes de-facto integration in some Emerging Market Economies based on behavior of deviations from Covered Interest Parity in the last 10 years. A price-based measure of de-facto integration provides crucial information for answering policy questions related to impact of capital openness and of effectiveness of controls. An Asymmetric Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive model is used to estimate bands of speculative inaction. The estimated bands follow the pattern expected, and reveal a rational market in the sense that deviations from parity are self correcting. The paper uses information from the estimated models to construct a new index of de-facto integration.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2257/
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8220/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2257.

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Date of creation: 10 Apr 2008
Date of revision: 10 Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2257

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Related research
Keywords: Covered Interest Parity Threshold Autoregression Financial Integration Integration Index Emerging Markets

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2003. "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," NBER Working Papers 10047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," NBER Working Papers 12484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Isabel Vieira, 2003. "Evaluating capital mobility in the EU: a new approach using swaps data," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 514-532, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Branson, William H, 1969. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 1028-35, Nov./Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-70, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2006. "Ineffective Controls On Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil In The Nineties," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 58, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2005. "Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 11640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening and Development: Evidence and Policy Controversies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 65-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Mark E. Wohar & Nathan S. Balke, 1998. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 535-559. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Mark P. Taylor & Elena Tchernykh Branson, 2004. "Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Delroy Hunter, 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Working Paper 2002-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  17. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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