Strict stationarity testing and estimation of explosive ARCH models
AbstractThis paper studies the asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of ARCH(1) models without strict stationarity constraints, and considers applications to testing problems. The estimator is unrestricted, in the sense that the value of the intercept, which cannot be consistently estimated in the explosive case, is not fixed. A specific behavior of the estimator of the ARCH coefficient is obtained at the boundary of the stationarity region, but this estimator remains consistent and asymptotically normal in every situation. The asymptotic variance is different in the stationary and non stationary situations, but is consistently estimated, with the same estimator, in both cases. Tests of strict stationarity and non stationarity are proposed. Their behaviors are studied under the null assumption and under local alternatives. The tests developed for the ARCH(1) model are able to detect non-stationarity in more general GARCH models. A numerical illustration based on stock indices is proposed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22414.
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
ARCH model; Inconsistency of estimators; Local power of tests; Nonstationarity; Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-05-08 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-05-08 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MIC-2010-05-08 (Microeconomics)
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