Strict stationarity testing and estimation of explosive ARCH models
AbstractThis paper studies the asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of ARCH(1) models without strict stationarity constraints, and considers applications to testing problems. The estimator is unrestricted, in the sense that the value of the intercept, which cannot be consistently estimated in the explosive case, is not fixed. A specific behavior of the estimator of the ARCH coefficient is obtained at the boundary of the stationarity region, but this estimator remains consistent and asymptotically normal in every situation. The asymptotic variance is different in the stationary and non stationary situations, but is consistently estimated, with the same estimator, in both cases. Tests of strict stationarity and non stationarity are proposed. Their behaviors are studied under the null assumption and under local alternatives. The tests developed for the ARCH(1) model are able to detect non-stationarity in more general GARCH models. A numerical illustration based on stock indices is proposed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22414.
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
ARCH model; Inconsistency of estimators; Local power of tests; Nonstationarity; Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-05-08 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-05-08 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MIC-2010-05-08 (Microeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Drost, F.C. & Klaassen, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1997. "Adaptive estimation in time-series models," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74145, Tilburg University.
- Søren Tolver Jensen & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Asymptotic Normality of the QMLE Estimator of ARCH in the Nonstationary Case," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 641-646, 03.
- Drost, F.C. & Klaasens, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994. "Adaptive Estimation in Time Series Models," Papers 9488, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Francq, Christian & Zako an, Jean-Michel, 2006. "Mixing Properties Of A General Class Of Garch(1,1) Models Without Moment Assumptions On The Observed Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 815-834, October.
- Jensen, S ren Tolver & Rahbek, Anders, 2004. "Asymptotic Inference For Nonstationary Garch," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(06), pages 1203-1226, December.
- Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Al-Eid, Eid M. & Hmeid, Aboubakry M., 2011. "Offline and online weighted least squares estimation of nonstationary power ARCH processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(10), pages 1535-1540, October.
- Abdelhakim Aknouche & Eid Al-Eid, 2012. "Asymptotic inference of unstable periodic ARCH processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 61-79, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.