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Managing infectious diseases over connected populations: a non-convex optimal control

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  • Ceddia, M Graziano

Abstract

The paper develops an optimal control model to analyse various management options for infectious diseases that occur in metapopulations, under both Nash and cooperative behaviour. As pathogens are renewable resources with negative value, the problem may be non-convex. Since the disease can be transmitted across various connected populations, externalities are involved. Both aspects deserve attention as two issues arise: a) is eradication of the disease in finite time preferable to indefinite treatment? b) are cooperative solutions well-behaved? The problem is solved numerically and the results indicate that while eradication is likely to be an optimal strategy when initial levels of infections are relatively low, the internalisation of between-population externalities (as indicated by the first order necessary conditions of the cooperative optimal control problem) might not always be possible. Also, ignoring these two aspects can lead to inadequate policy design.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22344/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22344.

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Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision: 2010
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22344

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Keywords: infectious diseases; metapopulation; non-convexities; optimal control;

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  1. Tahvonen, Olli & Salo, Seppo, 1996. "Nonconvexities in Optimal Pollution Accumulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 160-177, September.
  2. W.A. Brock & D. Starrett, 2003. "Managing Systems with Non-convex Positive Feedback," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(4), pages 575-602, December.
  3. Todd Sandler & Daniel G Arce M, 2002. "A conceptual framework for understanding global and transnational public goods for health," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 195-222, June.
  4. Scott Barrett, 2003. "Global Disease Eradication," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 591-600, 04/05.
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