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Predicting the Geography of House Prices

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  • Fingleton, Bernard

Abstract

Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate short term ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21113.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21113

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Keywords: new economic geography; real estate prices; spatial econometrics; panel data; prediction.;

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References

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  1. Kristian Behrens & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2009. "Krugman's "Papers in Regional Science": The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well-deserved," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 467-489, 06.
  2. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "A Generalized Method of Moments Estimator for a Spatial Panel Model with an Endogenous Spatial Lag and Spatial Moving Average Errors," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 27-44.
  3. Hanson, G.H., 1999. "`Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," Working Papers 439, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  4. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The Spatial Distribution of Wages: Estimating the Helpman-Hanson Model for Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 437-466.
  5. Mark D. Partridge, 2005. "Does Income Distribution Affect U.S. State Economic Growth?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 363-394.
  6. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
  7. Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
  8. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Prediction Using Panel Data Regression with Spatial Random Effects," SERC Discussion Papers 0007, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  9. G�ran Therborn & K.C. Ho, 2009. "Introduction," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-62, March.
  10. Badi H. BALTAGI & Peter EGGER & Michael PFAFFERMAYR, 2007. "A Monte Carlo Study for Pure and Pretest Estimators of a Panel Data Model with Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbances," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 87-88, pages 11-38.
  11. Badi H. Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Won Koh, 2002. "Testing Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  12. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
  13. Mutl, Jan & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2008. "The Spatial Random Effects and the Spatial Fixed Effects Model. The Hausman Test in a Cliff and Ord Panel Model," Economics Series 229, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  14. Bernard Fingleton, 2005. "Towards applied geographical economics: modelling relative wage rates, incomes and prices for the regions of Great Britain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2417-2428.
  15. Mario Larch & Janette Walde, 2009. "Finite sample properties of alternative GMM estimators for random effects models with spatially correlated errors," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 473-490, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Fingleton, Bernard & Palombi, Silvia, 2013. "Spatial panel data estimation, counterfactual predictions, and local economic resilience among British towns in the Victorian era," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 649-660.
  2. Badi H. Baltagi & Bernard Fingleton & Alain Pirotte, 2011. "Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model," SERC Discussion Papers 0095, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.

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