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世界经济长波导论:对危机与萧条的研究及预测
[An Introduction to World Economic Long Wave-Crises and Depressions: From Study to Anticipation]

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Author Info
dong, congcong

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Abstract

As is considered in this paper，none of the ever existing long wave theories can totally describe or correctly explain the chronic fluctuating characters of the capitalist world economy system since the year 1857. Based on Karl Marx’s greatest work “Capital” and combined with considerable quantities of historical materials such as all kinds of writings about economic long wave both at home and abroad，the paper analyzes four inherently identical waves，tries to draw a fluctuating graph of the world economy with the wavelength supposed to be 50 years，and then forecasts the future of the world.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2106/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2106.

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Date of creation: 27 Feb 2006
Date of revision: 01 Mar 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2106

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Related research
Keywords: economic crisis; long wave; forecasting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Institutional; Evolutionary

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