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Risk heterogeneity and credit supply: evidence from the mortgage market

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  • Bealey, Timothy
  • Meads, Neil
  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

This paper uses a unique data set on more than 600,000 mortgage contracts to estimate a credit supply function which allows for risk-heterogeneity. Non-linearity is modelled using quantile regressions. We propose an instrumental variable approach in which changes in the tax treatment of housing transactions are used as an instrument for loan demand. The results are suggestive of considerable risk heterogeneity with riskier borrowers penalised more for borrowing more.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20905/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20905.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20905

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Keywords: individual mortgage data; credit supply; risk pricing; heterogeneous effects; instrumental variable.;

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References

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  1. Andrew Chesher, 2005. "Nonparametric Identification under Discrete Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1525-1550, 09.
  2. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  3. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
  4. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1995. "Estimating labour supply responses using tax reforms," IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies W95/07, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
  6. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-26, August.
  7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
  8. Angel López-Nicolás & Jaume García & Pedro J. Hernández, 2001. "How wide is the gap? An investigation of gender wage differences using quantile regression," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 149-167.
  9. Denice DiPasquale & Edward L. Glaeser, 1997. "Incentives and Social Capital: Are Homeowners Better Citizens?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 1815, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2005. "An IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 245-261, 01.
  11. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  12. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  14. Chiang, Raymond C & Chow, Ying-Foon & Liu, Ming, 2002. "Residential Mortgage Lending and Borrower Risk: The Relationship between Mortgage Spreads and Individual Characteristics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-32, July.
  15. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
  16. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2004. "The Effects of 401(K) Participation on the Wealth Distribution: An Instrumental Quantile Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 735-751, August.
  18. Gabriel Jiménez & Atif Mian & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2011. "Local versus aggregate lending channels: the effects of securitization on corporate credit supply," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers, Banco de Espa�a 1124, Banco de Espa�a.
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Cited by:
  1. Ozlem Akin & José G. Montalvo & Jaume García Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep Maria Raya, 2014. "The Real Estate and Credit Bubble: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 772, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Ozlem Akin & José Garcia Montalvo & Jaume Garcia Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep M. Raya, 2014. "The real estate and credit bubble: Evidence from Spain," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 1430, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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