Impact du Commerce bilatéral Intra-Zone dans la zone UEMOA et CEMAC: Approche par les VAR Structurels
AbstractABSTRACT In this article, we empirically try to answer the second hypothesis on the theory of the ZMO developed by Mc Kinnon (1963), while working on a sample of the countries of the franc zone. We found on the assets of the gravity models to put in evidence the existing monetary union impact on the bilateral trade flux. In order to measure the effects of the monetary union on the intra zone trade, we call on, a structural VAR, to which is associated the method of space state model assessment with the aim of distinguishing the impact of an economic policy shock in a group of country in open economy. Our sample is constituted in this particular case of the 12 countries of the zone franc; seven countries of the UEMOA zone and five countries of the CEMAC zone. The originality of the approach is based on the fact that we tempt an endogeneisation of the flux of bilateral trade of every country in this analysis. The results of our investigations show a sensitive reduction of the effects borders, an improvement of the institutional effects as well as the effects bound to the distance on the flux of the intra zone trade. On the other hand, the survey by structural VAR and state measure models shows a relative symmetry of shocks observed in the real shocks of demand while the shocks of price and supply rather present an asymmetric character. With the importance of the real demand shocks, in our study we globally notice that some efforts must be made to vary the structure of the economy of the franc countries, currently based on the food-processing industries, which are very sensitive to the climatic risks; in order to hope to have the sustained growth rates which will allow to reach the objectives of poverty reduction by 2015.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2088.
Date of creation: 08 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Structural VAR model; optimal Currency area; symmetry of the shocks; Kalman filter;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
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