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Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty

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  • Knoben, J.
  • Kerkhofs, M.
  • Graafland, J.J.

Abstract

Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. We find that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20773.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in Tijdschrift voor Economie en Management 51.1(2006): pp. 47-72
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20773

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Keywords: Model simulation; policy evaluation; parameter uncertainty; CGE models;

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  1. Bovenberg, A Lans & de Mooij, Ruud A & Graafland, Johan J, 1998. "Tax Reform and the Dutch Labour Market: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Graafland, J.J. & Huizinga, F.H., 1998. "Taxes and benefits in a non-linear wage equation," MPRA Paper 21076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Draper, D.A.G., 2000. "Towards an econometric model for the Netherlands: Explaining unemployment," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-84090, Tilburg University.
  4. Donders, Jan & Graafland, Johan, 1998. "CPB models and employment policy in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 341-356, July.
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