Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty
AbstractShortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. We find that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20773.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Tijdschrift voor Economie en Management 51.1(2006): pp. 47-72
Model simulation; policy evaluation; parameter uncertainty; CGE models;
Other versions of this item:
- J. Knoben & M. Kerkhofs & J. Graafland, 2006. "Evaluation of Dutch Election Programs. The Impact of Parameter Uncertainty," Review of Business and Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, vol. 0(1), pages 47-74.
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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