Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market
AbstractThis paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more efficient estimator for supply and demand model of the Malaysian cocoa. The results suggest that the Malaysian cocoa production is mainly affected by the previous year production, price of cocoa beans at lag two as well as the harvested area. In the export demand equation, the real effective exchange rates is statistically significant determinant while the index of industrial production of advanced economies and the world price of cocoa are found to be insignificant. The results also suggest that both Malaysian industrial production index and domestic price of cocoa beans are key determinants of domestic demand for cocoa beans in Malaysia. Finally, the domestic price of cocoa beans is highly sensitive to its domestic consumption, lagged domestic price, and its world price.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19568.
Date of creation: 26 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Supply and Demand; Malaysian Cocoa; SUR technique;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2010-01-16 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-SEA-2010-01-16 (South East Asia)
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