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Multivariate portmanteau test for structural VARMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms

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  • Boubacar Mainassara, Yacouba
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    Abstract

    We consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent. We relax the standard independence assumption to extend the range of application of the VARMA models, and allow to cover linear representations of general nonlinear processes. We first study the joint distribution of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) or the least squared estimator (LSE) and the noise empirical autocovariances. We then derive the asymptotic distribution of residual empirical autocovariances and autocorrelations under weak assumptions on the noise. We deduce the asymptotic distribution of the Ljung-Box (or Box-Pierce) portmanteau statistics for VARMA models with nonindependent innovations. In the standard framework (i.e. under iid assumptions on the noise), it is known that the asymptotic distribution of the portmanteau tests is that of a weighted sum of independent chi-squared random variables. The asymptotic distribution can be quite different when the independence assumption is relaxed. Consequently, the usual chi-squared distribution does not provide an adequate approximation to the distribution of the Box-Pierce goodness-of fit portmanteau test. Hence we propose a method to adjust the critical values of the portmanteau tests. Monte carlo experiments illustrate the finite sample performance of the modified portmanteau test.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18990.

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    Date of creation: 07 Dec 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18990

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    Related research

    Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test; QMLE/LSE; Box-Pierce and Ljung-Box portmanteau tests; residual autocorrelation; Structural representation; weak VARMA models;

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    References

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    1. Ignacio Arbués, 2008. "An Extended Portmanteau Test for VARMA Models With Mixing Nonlinear Constraints," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 741-761, 09.
    2. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 70-86, February.
    3. Francq, Christian & Roy, Roch & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2005. "Diagnostic Checking in ARMA Models With Uncorrelated Errors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 532-544, June.
    4. Boubacar Mainassara, Yacouba & Francq, Christian, 2009. "Estimating structural VARMA models with uncorrelated but non-independent error terms," MPRA Paper 15141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Francq, Christian & Zako an, Jean-Michel, 2000. "Estimating Weak Garch Representations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 692-728, October.
    6. Chabot-Hallé, Dominique & Duchesne, Pierre, 2008. "Diagnostic checking of multivariate nonlinear time series models with martingale difference errors," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(8), pages 997-1005, June.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Boubacar Mainassara, Yacouba, 2010. "Selection of weak VARMA models by modified Akaike's information criteria," MPRA Paper 24981, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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