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Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach

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  • Pfau, Wade Donald

Abstract

Demographic and economic characteristics have been shown to provide important predictive power for determining a country’s success in the Olympic Games. This paper extends such research, providing a set of predictions for the gold medals and total medals each country will win at the 2006 Winter Olympics. We expected Germany to win the most medals, followed by the United States, Norway, Italy, Austria, and Canada. For total medals, the overall correlation between the predictions and the actual results was 0.934. While Germany and the United States did finish in the top two places, there were some surprises as Canada, Austria, and Russia performed better than expected, while Norway and Italy did not live up to expectations.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18829.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18829

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Related research

Keywords: olympics; medals; predictions; econometrics; winter;

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References

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  1. Daniel K. N. Johnson & Ayfer Ali, 2004. "A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 974-993.
  2. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Madeleine Andreff & Wladimir Andreff, 2011. "Economic Prediction of Medal Wins at the 2014 Winter Olympics," Ekonomika a Management, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2).
  2. Madeleine Andreff & Wladimir Andreff & Sandrine Poupaux, 2008. "Les Determinants Economiques de la Performance Olympique," Working Papers 0819, International Association of Sports Economists & North American Association of Sports Economists.

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