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Rational bubbles and volatility persistence in India stock market

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  • Onour, Ibrahim

Abstract

This paper employs a combination of unit root tests and fractional integration technique to test for rational bubbles in Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). It is indicated in the paper that evidence of a unit root in dividend yield is consistent with presence of rational bubbles in the stock prices. The results in the paper strongly support evidence of rational bubbles in BSE. Moreover, the paper also investigates the degree of conditional volatility persistence to show persistence of shocks to stock price volatility is short-termed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18545.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18545

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Keywords: Bubbles; Unit root; Fractional integration; Dividend yield;

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  2. Granger, Clive W. J. & Inoue, Tomoo & Morin, Norman, 1997. "Nonlinear stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 65-92, November.
  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
  7. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
  8. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
  9. Ng, Serena, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in flow data sampled at different frequencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 237-242, March.
  10. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  11. Sushil Bikhchandani & Sunil Sharma, 2001. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1.
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