IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/18000.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options

Author

Listed:
  • Caminha-Noronha, J. C.
  • Marangon-Lima, J. W.
  • Leite-Ferreira, T. G.
  • Unsihuay, C.
  • Zambroni de Souza, A. C.

Abstract

The Brazilian electric sector has two market-environments for the energy supply: a regulated pool (ACR), with 64 power distribution companies, and the free market (ACL), including free-consumers and energy wholesalers. In the regulated market, the power generation competition is enforced via energy auctions, where the winning generator has to sign long-term standard power purchase agreements (PPA) simultaneously with all distributors at the bidding-price. In this work we use the Real Options Theory to valuate new hydraulic generation assets, which will be traded in the new energy auction. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. A real example is presented, in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the waiting to invest in a new hydro power plant and an abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights. Since the project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Caminha-Noronha, J. C. & Marangon-Lima, J. W. & Leite-Ferreira, T. G. & Unsihuay, C. & Zambroni de Souza, A. C., 2006. "Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options," MPRA Paper 18000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18000
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18000/1/MPRA_paper_18000.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moreira, Ajax & Rocha, Katia & David, Pedro, 2004. "Thermopower generation investment in Brazil--economic conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 91-100, January.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jos Balibrea-Iniesta & Antonio S nchez-Soli o & Antonio Lara-Galera, 2015. "Application of Real Options Theory to the Assessment of Public Incentives for Onshore Wind Energy Development in Spain," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 791-800.
    2. Penizzotto, F. & Pringles, R. & Olsina, F., 2019. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Balibrea-Iniesta, José & Rodríguez-Monroy, Carlos & Núñez-Guerrero, Yilsy María, 2021. "Economic analysis of the German regulation for electrical generation projects from biogas applying the theory of real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Santos, Lúcia & Soares, Isabel & Mendes, Carla & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Real Options versus Traditional Methods to assess Renewable Energy Projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 588-594.
    2. Sisodia, Gyanendra Singh & Soares, Isabel & Ferreira, Paula, 2016. "Modeling business risk: The effect of regulatory revision on renewable energy investment - The Iberian case," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 303-313.
    3. Marreco, Juliana de Moraes & Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia, 2006. "Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3749-3756, December.
    4. Christina E. Bannier, 2016. "Bewertungsmethoden in der Projektfinanzierung Erneuerbarer Energien [Valuation Methods for Renewable Energy Projects]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 75-110, April.
    5. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    6. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    7. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    8. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
    9. Carol Alexandra & Leonardo M. Nogueira, 2005. "Optimal Hedging and Scale Inavriance: A Taxonomy of Option Pricing Models," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-10, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Nov 2005.
    10. William R. Morgan, 2023. "Finance Must Be Defended: Cybernetics, Neoliberalism and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Filipe Fontanela & Antoine Jacquier & Mugad Oumgari, 2019. "A Quantum algorithm for linear PDEs arising in Finance," Papers 1912.02753, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    12. Jun, Doobae & Ku, Hyejin, 2015. "Static hedging of chained-type barrier options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 317-327.
    13. Gordian Rättich & Kim Clark & Evi Hartmann, 2011. "Performance measurement and antecedents of early internationalizing firms: A systematic assessment," Working Papers 0031, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    14. Paul Ormerod, 2010. "La crisis actual y la culpabilidad de la teoría macroeconómica," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 111-128, January-J.
    15. An Chen & Thai Nguyen & Thorsten Sehner, 2022. "Unit-Linked Tontine: Utility-Based Design, Pricing and Performance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, April.
    16. Kearney, Fearghal & Shang, Han Lin & Sheenan, Lisa, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: The case of commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Álvarez Echeverría Francisco & López Sarabia Pablo & Venegas Martínez Francisco, 2012. "Valuación financiera de proyectos de inversión en nuevas tecnologías con opciones reales," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 57(3), pages 115-145, julio-sep.
    18. Vorst, A. C. F., 1988. "Option Pricing And Stochastic Processes," Econometric Institute Archives 272366, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    19. Dybvig, Philip H. & Gong, Ning & Schwartz, Rachel, 2000. "Bias of Damage Awards and Free Options in Securities Litigation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 149-168, April.
    20. Zhao, Zhibiao & Wu, Wei Biao, 2009. "Nonparametric inference of discretely sampled stable Lévy processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 83-92, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Power Generation Investments; Real Options; Investment Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18000. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.