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A Dynamic Oligopoly Game of the US Airline Industry: Estimation and Policy Experiments

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Author Info
Aguirregabiria, Victor
Ho, Chun-Yu

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Abstract

This paper studies the contribution of demand, costs, and strategic factors to the adoption of hub-and-spoke networks in the US airline industry. Our results are based on the estimation of a dynamic oligopoly game of network competition that incorporates three groups of factors that may explain hub-and-spoke networks: (1) travelers may value the services associated with the scale of operation of an airline in the hub airport; (2) operating costs and entry costs in a route may decline with the airline's scale of operation in the origin and destination airports (e.g., economies of scale and scope); and (3) a hub-and-spoke network may be an effective strategy to deter the entry of other carriers. We estimate the model using data from the Airline Origin and Destination Survey with information on quantities, prices, and entry and exit decisions for every airline company in the routes between the 55 largest US cities. As methodological contributions, we propose and apply a method to reduce the dimension of the state space in dynamic games, and a procedure to deal with the problem of multiple equilibria when using a estimated model to make counterfactual experiments. We find that the most important factor to explain the adoption of hub-and-spoke networks is that the cost of entry in a route declines importantly with the scale of operation of the airline in the airports of the route. For some of the larger carriers, strategic entry deterrence is the second most important factor to explain hub-and-spoke networks.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16739.

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Date of creation: 09 Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16739

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Related research
Keywords: Airline industry; Hub-and-spoke networks; Entry costs; Industry dynamics; Estimation of dynamic games; Counterfactual experiments in models with multiple equilibria.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques
L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2008. "Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 92-106, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1637-1673, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1994. "Measuring the Importance of Sunk Costs," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 34, pages 08, Avril-Jui. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2007. "Computable Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Existence, Purification, and Multiplicity," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000912, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Tae Hoon Oum & Anming Zhang & Yimin Zhang, 1995. "Airline Network Rivalry," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4a), pages 836-57, November.
  13. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steve Berry, 2004. "Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry/Exit Examples)," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2036, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Severin Borenstein, 1989. "Hubs and High Fares: Dominance and Market Power in the U.S. Airline Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(3), pages 344-365, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2007. "Computable Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Existence, Purification, and Multiplicity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Alam, Ila M Semenick & Sickles, Robin C, 2000. "Time Series Analysis of Deregulatory Dynamics and Technical Efficiency: The Case of the U.S. Airline Industry," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 203-18, February.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Doraszelski, Ulrich & Escobar, Juan, 2008. "A Theory of Regular Markov Perfect Equilibria in Dynamic Stochastic Games: Genericity, Stability, and Purification," CEPR Discussion Papers 6805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jia Yan & Xiaowen Fu & Tae Oum, 2008. "Exploring Network Effects of Point-to-Point Networks: An Investigation of the Spatial Entry Patterns of Southwest Airlines," Working Papers 2008-21, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2009. "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games Using the Nested Pseudo Likelihood Algorithm: Code and Application," MPRA Paper 17329, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joao Macieira, 2007. "Extending the Frontier: A Structural Model of Investment and Technological Competition in the Supercomputer Industry," Working Papers e07-10, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michaela Draganska & Sanjog Misra & Victor Aguirregabiria & Pat Bajari & Liran Einav & Paul Ellickson & Dan Horsky & Sridhar Narayanan & Yesim Orhun & Peter Reiss & Katja Seim & Vishal Singh & Raphael, 2008. "Discrete choice models of firms’ strategic decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 399-416, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hashmi, Aamir Rafique & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes, 2007. "Market Structure and Innovation: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Automobile Industry," MPRA Paper 1787, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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