Procesy s dlouhou pamětí a jejich vývoj ve výnosech indexu PX v letech 1999 – 2009
[Long-term memory and its evolution in returns of PX between 1999 and 2009]
AbstractLong-term memory processes have been extensively examined in recent literature as they provide simple way to test for predictability in the underlying process. However, most of the literature interprets the results of estimated Hurst exponent simply by its comparison to its asymptotic limit of 0.5. Therefore, we present results of Monte Carlo simulations for rescaled range, modified rescaled range and detrended fluctuation analysis based on chosen scales taken into consideration. The results of simulations show that even independent process can show Hurst exponent far from 0.5. In our analysis of evolution of Hurst exponent between 1999 and 2009, we show that Czech PX experienced persistent behavior which weakened in time. Nevertheless, the returns of PX remain close to confidence interval separating independent and persistent behavior.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16435.
Date of creation: 08 Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Hurst exponent; long-range dependence; time series analysis; persistence; rescaled range; detrended fluctuation analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chin, Wencheong, 2008. "Spurious long-range dependence: evidence from Malaysian equity markets," MPRA Paper 7914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lo, Andrew W, 1991.
"Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "RSSTATISTIC: RATS procedure to compute R/S Statistic (classical or Lo's modified)," Statistical Software Components RTS00191, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Tran Van Quang, 2007. "Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis for the czech stock market," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2007(6), pages 751-772.
- Couillard, Michel & Davison, Matt, 2005. "A comment on measuring the Hurst exponent of financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 404-418.
- Lux, Thomas, 2007.
"Applications of statistical physics in finance and economics,"
Economics Working Papers
2007,05, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Thomas Lux, 2007. "Application of Statistical Physics in Finance and Economics," Working Papers wp07-09, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
- Thomas Lux, 2008. "Applications of Statistical Physics in Finance and Economics," Kiel Working Papers 1425, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Weron, Rafał, 2002.
"Estimating long-range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 312(1), pages 285-299.
- Rafal Weron, 2001. "Estimating long range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals," HSC Research Reports HSC/01/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Grech, D & Mazur, Z, 2004. "Can one make any crash prediction in finance using the local Hurst exponent idea?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 133-145.
- B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology For Nonperiodic Cycles: From The Covariance To Rs Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 2001. "Non-periodic Australian Stock Market Cycles: Evidence from Rescaled Range Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(239), pages 393-406, December.
- John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Nickolaos Travlos, 1996.
"Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
356., Boston College Department of Economics.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2003.
"The long memory of the efficient market,"
cond-mat/0311053, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2004.
- T. Di Matteo, 2007. "Multi-scaling in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 21-36.
- Matos, José A.O. & Gama, Sílvio M.A. & Ruskin, Heather J. & Sharkasi, Adel Al & Crane, Martin, 2008. "Time and scale Hurst exponent analysis for financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3910-3915.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Carlos Echeverría, Juan, 2005. "Detrending fluctuation analysis based on moving average filtering," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 199-219.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.