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Demographic Change and the Murder Rate: The Case of the United States, 1934 to 2006

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Author Info
Nunley, John
Seals, Alan
Zietz, Joachim

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Abstract

Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age-crime hypothesis. Examining a longer time horizon with rigorous econometric techniques, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the murder rate. Increases in the immigration rate and prevalence of crack cocaine also contribute to changes in the murder rate. However, these variables capture a miniscule portion of its trend, while changes in the young population explain a substantial portion of the trend since the 1930s.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16315.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16315

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Related research
Keywords: murder rate; demographic change; age composition; crime;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Glaeser, Edward L & Sacerdote, Bruce & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 507-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christopher L. Foote & Christopher F. Goetz, 2008. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime: Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(1), pages 407-423, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-91, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2007. "Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime," NBER Working Papers 13097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Angela K. Dills & Jeffrey A. Miron & Garrett Summers, 2008. "What Do Economists Know About Crime?," NBER Working Papers 13759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ted Joyce, 2009. "A Simple Test of Abortion and Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 112-123, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ted Joyce, 2004. "Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alan Seals, 2009. "Are Gangs a Substitute for Legitimate Employment? Investigating the Impact of Labor Market Effects on Gang Affiliation," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(3), pages 407-425, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2007. "Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1). [Downloadable!]
  11. John J. Donohue & Steven D. Levitt, 2001. "The Impact Of Legalized Abortion On Crime," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 379-420, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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