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Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility

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  • Kazumasa, Oguro
  • Junichiro, Takahata
  • Manabu, Shimasawa

Abstract

In this paper, we present an OLG simulation model with endogenous fertility in order to analyze the relationship between child benefit and fiscal burden in Japan. Our simulation results show that expansion of the child benefit will improve the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, our findings show that we cannot expect a significant long-term improvement in welfare solely from implementing a policy of increasing the consumption tax. If both the sustainability of the fiscal budget and the improvement of the welfare of current and future generations are requirements, we will need to promote a strategy consisting of such components as a policy-mix that includes both child benefit expansion and additional fiscal reform, i.e. increasing the consumption tax. Implementation of such a policy-mix could be expected to yield a higher economic level in the welfare of current and future generations than could be expected solely from consumption tax reform.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16132.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16132

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Keywords: Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; overlapping generations (OLG); child benefit; endogenous fertility;

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  1. Abel, Andrew B, et al, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
  2. Mikhail Golosov & Larry E Jones & Michèle Tertilt, 2003. "Effciency with Endogenous Population Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 666156000000000310, David K. Levine.
  3. Raut, L K & Srinivasan, T N, 1994. "Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(5), pages 777-90, August.
  4. Eckstein, Zvi & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1985. "Endogenous fertility and optimal population size," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 93-106, June.
  5. Nishimura, K. & Zhang, J., 1990. "Pay-As-You-Go Public Pensions With Endogenous Fertility," Papers 202, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  6. Oguro, Kazumasa & Takahata, Junichiro, 2009. "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility," MPRA Paper 15378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Edward Whitehouse, 2007. "Pensions Panorama : Retirement-Income Systems in 53 Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7177, October.
  8. Becker, Gary S & Barro, Robert J, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February.
  9. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, .
  10. Rupa Chakrabarti, 1999. "Endogenous fertility and growth in a model with old age support," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 393-416.
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Cited by:
  1. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Simulating Public Pension Reforms in an Aging Japan: Welfare Analysis with LSRA Transfers," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 597-632, September.
  2. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 12/197, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kazumasa Oguro & Manabu Shimasawa & Junichiro Takahata, 2013. "Child Benefits and Welfare for Current and Future Generations: Simulation Analyses in an Overlapping-Generations Model With Endogenous Fertility," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 490-511, April.

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