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A remark on the supposed equivalence between complete markets and perfect foresight hypothesis

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  • Fratini, Saverio M.
  • Levrero, Enrico Sergio

Abstract

We consider a sequential equilibrium model over two periods, during the first of which agents have perfect information and their expectations are formed as if there were complete future markets. We show that, in the second period, equilibrium prices may well be different from those expected, without any unexpected change having occurred. This result highlights a lack of correspondence between the perfect foresight hypothesis and that of complete markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Fratini, Saverio M. & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2009. "A remark on the supposed equivalence between complete markets and perfect foresight hypothesis," MPRA Paper 15988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15988
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bliss, C. J., 1975. "Capital Theory and the Distribution of Income," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780720436044 edited by Bliss, C. J..
    2. Saverio M. Fratini, 2008. "Economic Generality Versus Mathematical Genericity: Activity‐Level Indeterminacy And The Index Theorem In Constant Returns Production Economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 266-275, May.
    3. Mandler Michael, 1995. "Sequential Indeterminacy in Production Economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 406-436, August.
    4. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993. "Temporary general equilibrium theory," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 879-922, Elsevier.
    5. Green, Jerry R, 1973. "Temporary General Equilibrium in a Sequential Trading Model with Spot and Futures Transactions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1103-1123, November.
    6. Hicks, J. R., 1975. "Value and Capital: An Inquiry into some Fundamental Principles of Economic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198282693.
    7. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arrow-Debreu equilibrium; Complete markets; Sequential equilibrium; Perfect foresight; Indeterminacy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D46 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Value Theory
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies

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