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Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features

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  • Doran, James
  • Jiang, Danling
  • Peterson, David

Abstract

This paper examines whether investors exhibit a New Year's gambling preference and whether such preference impacts prices and returns of assets with lottery features. In January, calls options have higher demand than put options, especially by small investors. In addition, relative to at-the-money calls, out-of-the-money calls are the most expensive and actively traded. In the equity markets, lottery-type stocks in the US outperform their counterparts mainly in January, but tend to underperform in other months. Lottery-type Chinese stocks outperform in the Chinese New Year month, but not in January. This New Year effect provides new insights into the broad phenomena related to the January effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2008. "Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features," MPRA Paper 15463, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15463
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    6. Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2010. "The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2413-2424, October.
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    9. Li, Xindan & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Yang, Xuewei, 2018. "Can financial innovation succeed by catering to behavioral preferences? Evidence from a callable options market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 38-65.
    10. Nguyen, Hung T. & Truong, Cameron, 2018. "When are extreme daily returns not lottery? At earnings announcements!," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 92-116.
    11. Clark, Gordon L. & Fiaschetti, Maurizio & Tufano, Peter & Viehs, Michael, 2018. "Playing with your future: Who gambles in defined-contribution pension plans?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 213-225.
    12. Meng, Yun & Pantzalis, Christos, 2018. "Monthly cyclicality in retail Investors’ liquidity and lottery-type stocks at the turn of the month," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 176-191.
    13. Justin Cox & Adam Schwartz & Robert Ness, 2020. "Does what happen in Vegas stay in Vegas? Football gambling and stock market activity," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 724-748, October.
    14. Cookson, J. Anthony, 2018. "When saving is gambling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 24-45.
    15. Stephan Meyer & Sebastian Schroff & Christof Weinhardt, 2014. "(Un)skilled leveraged trading of retail investors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(2), pages 111-138, May.
    16. Chan, Yue-Cheong & Chui, Andy C.W., 2016. "Gambling in the Hong Kong stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 204-218.
    17. Haotian Xu & Wei Wei, 2020. "The Market Reaction of Bonus Shares Issuing and the Lottery-like Stock Preference: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5.
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    22. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    23. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Pricing deviation, misvaluation comovement, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5285-5299.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    January effect; Gambling; Preference for skewness; Out-of-the-money options; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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