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Revealing the naked truth behind price determinacy, infinite-horizon rational expectations, and inflation targeting

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Eagle, David

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Abstract

By presenting two examples where the non-exploding criterion fails miserably, we demonstrate that that criterion does not universally apply. Therefore, by normal academic standards and burdens of proof, the previous price-determinacy literature has the burden to prove that the non-explosive criterion does apply to their models. However, that literature has not met and probably cannot meet that burden. Instead of using the non-explosive criterion, this paper looks at an economy with an arbitrarily large, but finite horizon and concludes that inflation targeting leads to price indeterminacy even with a Taylor-like feedback rule for setting the nominal interest rate.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1885/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1538.

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Date of creation: 18 Jan 2007
Date of revision: 22 Feb 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1538

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Related research
Keywords: non-explosive criterion; price determinacy; inflation targeting; stability criterion; saddle-point criterion; infinite-horizon economies; pegging the interest rate;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ovidiu L. Calin & Yu Chen & Thomas F. Cosimano & Alex A. Himonas, 2005. "Solving Asset Pricing Models when the Price-Dividend Function Is Analytic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 961-982, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dittmar, Robert D. & Gavin, William T., 2005. "Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 336-342, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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