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Export and Economic Growth in India: Causal Interpretation

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  • Pandey, Alok Kumar

Abstract

The present study focuses on the cointegration between Export and Gross Domestic Product and its components at current and constant prices. Time series data for Export and Gross Domestic Product and its components has been taken for the period 1950-51 to 2001-02. In the long run export and GDP reveal that export and GDP at constant prices are not cointegrable while export and GDP at current prices are cointegrable and also the direction of causality is positive. In the short run, through error correction mechanism it has been observed that GDP as dependent variable and export as an independent variable show that short run changes in export have affected positively to GDP and its components.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14670.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision: Oct 2006
Publication status: Published in Journal of Global Economy 4.2(2006): pp. 245-277
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14670

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Keywords: Gross Domestic Product; Export; Unit root test; Cointegration; Error Correction Model; Time series;

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  1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Mohtadi, Hamid & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1991. "Exports, growth and causality in LDCs : A re-examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-415, October.
  2. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
  3. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
  4. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
  5. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
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