Factors Driving Demand and Default Risk in Residential Housing Loans: Indian Evidence
AbstractThis paper empirically examines the functional role of various micro and macro economic as well as situational factors that determine residential housing demand and risk of borrower default. Using 13,487 housing loan account sanctioned from 1993-2007) data from Housing Finance Institutions (HFIs) in India, we investigate the crucial factors that drive demand for housing and its correlation with borrower characteristics. Next, we examine housing loan defaults and the major causative factors of the same. Our empirical results suggest that borrower defaults on housing loan payments is mainly driven by change in market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount and EMI to income ratio. A 10 percent decrease in the market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount raises the odds of default by 1.55 percent. Similarly, a 10 percent increase in EMI to income ratio raises the delinquency chance by 4.50 percent. However, one cannot ignore borrower characteristicslike marital status, employment situation, regional locations, city locations, age profile and house preference which otherwise may inhibit lender to properly assess credit risk in home loan business as our results show that these parameters also act as default triggers.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14352.
Date of creation: 02 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Housing Demand; Risk Management; Financial Institutions and Banks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
- Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2005.
"Estimating Housing Demand With an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 20-33, January.
- Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2003. "Estimating Housing Demand with an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," NBER Working Papers 9891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2002. "Estimating Housing Demand with an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," Working Papers 02011, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Paul S. Calem & Susan M. Wachter, 1999.
"Community Reinvestment and Credit Risk: Evidence from an Affordable-Home-Loan Program,"
Real Estate Economics,
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 105-134.
- Paul S. Calem & Susan Wachter, 1998. "Community Reinvestment and Credit Risk: Evidence from an Affordable Home Loan Program," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 306, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996.
"Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 1995. "Mortgage Default and Low Downpayment Loans: The Costs of Public Subsidy," NBER Working Papers 5184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luci Ellis, 2010.
"The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?,"
International Real Estate Review,
Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
- Luci Ellis, 2008. "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?," BIS Working Papers 259, Bank for International Settlements.
- Bartik, Timothy J, 1987. "Estimating Hedonic Demand Parameters with Single Market Data: The Problems Caused by Unobserved Tastes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 178-80, February.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008.
"Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Brown, James N & Rosen, Harvey S, 1982.
"On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 765-68, May.
- James N. Brown & Harvey S. Rosen, 1982. "On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epple, Dennis, 1987. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Estimating Demand and Supply Functions for Differentiated Products," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 59-80, February.
- George M. Furstenberg & R. Jeffrey Green, 1974. "Estimation of Delinquency Risk for Home Mortgage Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 5-19.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.