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New results on the influence of climate on the distribution of population and economic activity

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  • Füssel, Hans-Martin
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    Abstract

    This paper applies G-Econ+, an updated version of the G-Econ database by Nordhaus, to analyze the influence of climatic and geographic factors on the geographic distribution of population and economic activity. I discuss options for improved treatment of several statistical problems associated with G-Econ, which are not addressed adequately in the original G-Econ analysis. Reanalysis of key results from the original G-Econ analysis corrects some surprising results therein. Extensive sensitivity analysis determines the robustness of the relationship between climatic factors and economic activity across alternative central estimators. Further analysis assesses revealed climatic preferences of population, the effects of climate parameters on different quantiles of economic variables, and synergies between temperature and precipitation. I find that population density has a much stronger influence on output density than output per capita. Furthermore, least developed countries are located in a climatic zone where all indicators of economic activity decline with increasing temperature.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13788/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13788.

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    Date of creation: 04 Mar 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13788

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    Keywords: Climate; macroeconomics; population; cross-sectional analysis; G-Econ;

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    1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
    2. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," NBER Working Papers 14680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731.
    5. Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy, 1999. "Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not to Transform?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2003. "Institutions Don't Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per Capita Income," NBER Working Papers 9490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Manning, Willard G. & Basu, Anirban & Mullahy, John, 2005. "Generalized modeling approaches to risk adjustment of skewed outcomes data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 465-488, May.
    8. Mullahy, John, 1998. "Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-281, June.
    9. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Füssel, Hans-Martin, 2010. "Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity," MPRA Paper 29888, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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