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Scenarios of economic development in Romania - medium to long-term forecasting models

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  • Albu, Lucian-Liviu
  • Roudoi, Andrei

Abstract

In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to the 2015 horizon, we used a mix of forecasting models, from ones classified as “medium-term” to those covering longer forecasting periods. Based on the analysis of the economic transition period we mainly used three models: a) A sustainability function model (public debt and fiscal deficits); b) A simple econometric model, based on a production function, in which FDI and exports are introduced as inputs in addition to labour and domestic capital (also developed as a quarterly model); c) A standard Cobb-Douglas model (also used in the case of the main economic sectors). In this paper we are synthetically presenting the basic equations of the models, and also their main simulation outputs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13588.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Publication status: Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting 5.4(2003): pp. 64-77
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13588

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Keywords: forecasting; sustainability function; production function; economic growth;

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References

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
  3. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. V N Balasubramanyam & M Salisu & David Sapsford., . "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Working Papers ec18/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
  5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2003. "Estimating contribution of factors to long-term growth in Romania," MPRA Paper 14729, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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