Scenarios of economic development in Romania - medium to long-term forecasting models
AbstractIn order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to the 2015 horizon, we used a mix of forecasting models, from ones classified as “medium-term” to those covering longer forecasting periods. Based on the analysis of the economic transition period we mainly used three models: a) A sustainability function model (public debt and fiscal deficits); b) A simple econometric model, based on a production function, in which FDI and exports are introduced as inputs in addition to labour and domestic capital (also developed as a quarterly model); c) A standard Cobb-Douglas model (also used in the case of the main economic sectors). In this paper we are synthetically presenting the basic equations of the models, and also their main simulation outputs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13588.
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting 5.4(2003): pp. 64-77
forecasting; sustainability function; production function; economic growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Albu, Lucian Liviu & Roudoi, Andrei, 2003. "Scenarios Of Economic Development In Romania – Medium To Long-Term Forecasting Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 64-77, December.
- E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
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