Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings
AbstractIn the evaluation of transportation infrastructure projects, some non-tradable goods such as time are usually key determinants of the result. However, obtaining monetary values for these goods is not always easy. This paper introduces a novel approach based on the combination of bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis. This methodology will allow to obtain predictive distributions of the monetary values for this type of goods. Therefore, uncertainty is formally considered in the analysis. Moreover, the proposed method is easy to apply and inexpensive both in terms of time and money. Finally, an application to the value of travel time savings is also presented.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12861.
Date of creation: 31 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Bayesian Prediction; Meta-Analysis; Uncertainty; Value of Travel Time Savings;
Other versions of this item:
- Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 801-817, June.
- L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
- D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-01-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-01-24 (Forecasting)
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