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Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings

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Author Info
Moral-Benito, Enrique

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Abstract

In the evaluation of transportation infrastructure projects, some non-tradable goods such as time are usually key determinants of the result. However, obtaining monetary values for these goods is not always easy. This paper introduces a novel approach based on the combination of bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis. This methodology will allow to obtain predictive distributions of the monetary values for this type of goods. Therefore, uncertainty is formally considered in the analysis. Moreover, the proposed method is easy to apply and inexpensive both in terms of time and money. Finally, an application to the value of travel time savings is also presented.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12861/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12861.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12861

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian Prediction; Meta-Analysis; Uncertainty; Value of Travel Time Savings.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  2. W. Kip Viscusi & Joseph E. Aldy, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," NBER Working Papers 9487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Campos , Javier & de Rus, Gines & Barron, Ignacio, 2007. "A review of HSR experiences around the world," MPRA Paper 12397, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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