Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labor markets' performance. A panel SVECM approach
AbstractIn this paper the dynamic responses of labor markets to macroeconomic shocks in eight CEE countries are empirically analyzed in panel SVECM. Identification of shocks, interpreted as real wage, productivity, labor demand and supply shocks, is based on DSGE model with labor market explicitly modeled after Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Fluctuations in foreign demand are controlled for and the model is estimated with panel procedure, which improves estimation's precision. We show that propagation of shocks on NMS labor markets fairly resembles that characterizing OECD countries. Productivity improving shocks temporarily increase unemployment. Positive labor demand shocks increase employment, depress unemployment, rise real average wages, and were found to be the main determinant of variability of employment and unemployment in the short-run. In the medium term, in Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland innovations in wages seem to be prevalent drivers of employment and unemployment. The retrospective simulations of the model show that Baltic states and Poland were significantly affected by the collapse of Russian exports in late 1990s, and in 2000 an adverse labor demand shock hit all NMS, except for Hungary and Slovenia. However, the flexibility of wages is found to be crucial factor behind the diverse labor market performance in the region. Slovenia and Estonia fared best when it comes to flexibility of wages on macro level, on the other hand in Czech Republic, Lithuania and Poland downward wage rigidities were especially binding after employment-contracting shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12429.
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Unemployment; Rigidities; Transition economies; Cointegration; Structural VECM; Panel econometrics; DSGE models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2009-01-03 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-LAB-2009-01-03 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2009-01-03 (Transition Economics)
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