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A test for model specification of diffusion processes

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Author Info
Chen, songxi
Gao, Jiti
Tang, Chenghong

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Abstract

We propose a test for model specification of a parametric diffusion process based on a kernel estimation of the transitional density of the process. The empirical likelihood is used to formulate a statistic, for each kernel smoothing bandwidth, which is effectively a Studentized L2-distance between the kernel transitional density estimator and the parametric transitional density implied by the parametric process. To reduce the sensitivity of the test on smoothing bandwidth choice, the final test statistic is constructed by combining the empirical likelihood statistics over a set of smoothing bandwidths. To better capture the finite sample distribution of the test statistic and data dependence, the critical value of the test is obtained by a parametric bootstrap procedure. Properties of the test are evaluated asymptotically and numerically by simulation and by a real data example.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11976/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11976.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision: Feb 2007
Publication status: Published in Annals of Statistics 1.36(2008): pp. 162-198
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11976

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Related research
Keywords: Bootstrap; diffusion process; empirical likelihood; goodness-of-fit test; time series; transitional density;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jiang, George J. & Knight, John L., 1997. "A Nonparametric Approach to the Estimation of Diffusion Processes, With an Application to a Short-Term Interest Rate Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 615-645, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
  4. Chen, Song Xi & Cui, Hengjian, 2007. "On the second-order properties of empirical likelihood with moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 492-516, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robinson, P M, 1989. "Hypothesis Testing in Semiparametric and Nonparametric Models for Econometric Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 511-34, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Li, Qi, 1999. "Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 101-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. H. G. Müller & U. Stadtmüller, 1999. "Multivariate boundary kernels and a continuous least squares principle," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 439-458. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fan, Yanqin & Li, Qi, 1996. "Consistent Model Specification Tests: Omitted Variables and Semiparametric Functional Forms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 865-90, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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