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A test for model specification of diffusion processes

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  • Chen, Song Xi
  • Gao, Jiti
  • Tang, Chenghong

Abstract

We propose a test for model specification of a parametric diffusion process based on a kernel estimation of the transitional density of the process. The empirical likelihood is used to formulate a statistic, for each kernel smoothing bandwidth, which is effectively a Studentized L2-distance between the kernel transitional density estimator and the parametric transitional density implied by the parametric process. To reduce the sensitivity of the test on smoothing bandwidth choice, the final test statistic is constructed by combining the empirical likelihood statistics over a set of smoothing bandwidths. To better capture the finite sample distribution of the test statistic and data dependence, the critical value of the test is obtained by a parametric bootstrap procedure. Properties of the test are evaluated asymptotically and numerically by simulation and by a real data example.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11976/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11976.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision: Feb 2007
Publication status: Published in Annals of Statistics 1.36(2008): pp. 162-198
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11976

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Related research

Keywords: Bootstrap; diffusion process; empirical likelihood; goodness-of-fit test; time series; transitional density;

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References

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  1. Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao & Howell Tong, 1996. "Estimation of conditional densities and sensitivity measures in nonlinear dynamical systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6704, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Fan, Yanqin & Li, Qi, 1996. "Consistent Model Specification Tests: Omitted Variables and Semiparametric Functional Forms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 865-90, July.
  3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  4. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
  5. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Bickel, Peter J. & Stoker, Thomas M., 2001. "Goodness-of-fit tests for kernel regression with an application to option implied volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 363-412, December.
  6. Robinson, P M, 1989. "Hypothesis Testing in Semiparametric and Nonparametric Models for Econometric Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 511-34, October.
  7. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08.
  8. Andrew W. Lo, . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Chen, Song Xi & Cui, Hengjian, 2007. "On the second-order properties of empirical likelihood with moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 492-516, December.
  10. Cai, Zongwu & Hong, Yongmiao, 2003. "Nonparametric Methods in Continuous-Time Finance: A Selective Review," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,15, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  11. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  12. H. G. Müller & U. Stadtmüller, 1999. "Multivariate boundary kernels and a continuous least squares principle," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 439-458.
  13. Li, Qi, 1999. "Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 101-147, September.
  14. Jiang, George J. & Knight, John L., 1997. "A Nonparametric Approach to the Estimation of Diffusion Processes, With an Application to a Short-Term Interest Rate Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 615-645, October.
  15. Vidar Hjellvik & Qiwei Yao & Dag Tjostheim, 1998. "Linearity testing using local polynominal approximation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Choi, Hwan-sik & Jeong, Minsoo & Park, Joon Y., 2014. "An asymptotic analysis of likelihood-based diffusion model selection using high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 539-557.
  2. Kristensen, Dennis, 2011. "Semi-nonparametric estimation and misspecification testing of diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 382-403, October.
  3. Jianqing Fan & Yingying Fan & Jinchi Lv, 0. "Aggregation of Nonparametric Estimators for Volatility Matrix," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(3), pages 321-357.
  4. Xu, Ke-Li, 2010. "Reweighted Functional Estimation Of Diffusion Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 541-563, April.
  5. Vance Martin & Yoshihiko Nishiyama & John Stachurski, 2011. "A Goodness Of Fit Test For Ergodic Markov Processes," KIER Working Papers 787, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Lin, Liang-Ching & Lee, Sangyeol & Guo, Meihui, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit test for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 473-498.
  7. Gao, Jiti & Casas, Isabel, 2006. "Specification testing in discretized diffusion models: Theory and practice," MPRA Paper 11980, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2007.
  8. Xu, Ke-Li, 2009. "Empirical likelihood-based inference for nonparametric recurrent diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 65-82, November.
  9. Song Chen & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2009. "Rejoinder on: A review on empirical likelihood methods for regression," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 468-474, November.
  10. Song, Zhaogang, 2011. "A martingale approach for testing diffusion models based on infinitesimal operator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 189-212, June.
  11. Monsalve-Cobis, Abelardo & González-Manteiga, Wenceslao & Febrero-Bande, Manuel, 2011. "Goodness-of-fit test for interest rate models: An approach based on empirical processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 3073-3092, December.
  12. Song Xi Chen & Jiti Gao, 2010. "Simultaneous Testing of Mean and Variance Structures in Nonlinear Time Series Models," School of Economics Working Papers 2010-28, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  13. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2011. "Generalized spectral testing for multivariate continuous-time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 268-293, October.

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