Sectoral and Industrial Business Cycles
AbstractThis article calculates the sectoral and industrial business cycles by means of the band-pass filters by Baxter and King (1999) and Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003), to subsequently analyze the correlations between the sectors and industries and the overall economy. It can be shown that the correlations between the business cycles of the sectors and industries and the overall economy differ strongly. The agriculture sector and the industries mining and quarrying, electricity and education for example exhibit almost no correlation with the overall economy; The wholesale and retail as well as the transport industry on the other hand have a high correlation. By means of an analysis of the leading and lagging correlations it can be shown that the wholesale and retail industry leads the overall economy by two quarters. Thus, the wholesale and retail industry can be used as an indicator for the development of the overall economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1176.
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Business Cycle; Correlation; Band-Pass Filter; Sectoral Cycles; Industrial Cycles; Cross-Country Correlation; Monetary Policy; Forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2007-01-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-01-14 (Macroeconomics)
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