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Inflation Persistence and the Taylor Principle

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  • Murray, Christian
  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex
  • Papell, David

Abstract

Although the persistence of inflation is a central concern of macroeconomics, there is no consensus regarding whether or not inflation is stationary or has a unit root. We show that, in the context of a “textbook” macroeconomic model, inflation is stationary if and only if the Taylor rule obeys the Taylor principle, so that the real interest rate is increased when inflation rises above the target inflation rate. We estimate Markov switching models for both inflation and real-time forward looking Taylor rules. Inflation appears to have a unit root for most of the 1967 – 1981 period, and is stationary before 1967 and after 1981. We find that the Fed’s response to inflation is also regime dependent, with both the pre and post-Volcker samples containing monetary regimes where the Fed both did and did not follow the Taylor principle. This contrasts to recent research that suggests the Fed’s response to inflation has been time invariant, and that changes in monetary policy only occurred with respect to the output gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11353.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11353

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Keywords: Taylor rule; real-time data; Great inflation; policy regimes; Markov switching;

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References

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  1. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., . "La persistencia estadística de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 623, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Joseph D. ALBA & Wai-Mun CHIA & Donghyun PARK, 2011. "Foreign Output Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes in Small Open Economies: A DSGE Evaluation of East Asia," Working Papers DP-2011-09, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  3. Chang-Jin Kim & Pym Manopimoke & Charles R. Nelson, 2013. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Paper Series 1305, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  4. Alba, Joseph D. & Chia, Wai-Mun & Park, Donghyun, 2012. "A Welfare Evaluation of East Asian Monetary Policy Regimes under Foreign Output Shock," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 299, Asian Development Bank.
  5. Antonio E. Noriega & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
  6. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2012. "Taylor rules and the Great Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 903-918.
  7. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  9. Lovcha, Yuliya & Pérez Laborda, Àlex, 2013. "A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2072/211795, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.

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