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¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta
[Which is the growth of long term of the Chilean economy?]

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  • Idrovo Aguirre, Byron

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in most recent months. We conclude formally, from the use of univariate time series models –including a deterministic trend (with structural breaks) and a stochastic trend (with and without regime switching), that the long term growth rate would be marginally below that rank (somewhat superior to 4 per cent) and with a moderate adjustment velocity when the activity relays far from the steady state (up to one year).

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11114/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11114.

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Date of creation: 14 Feb 2008
Date of revision: 14 Aug 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11114

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Keywords: Economía; Ciclos; Crecimiento; Tendencia; Filtro de Kalman;

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  1. Christian Johnson, 2001. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
  2. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  3. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
  4. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
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