¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta
[Which is the growth of long term of the Chilean economy?]
AbstractThe objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in most recent months. We conclude formally, from the use of univariate time series models –including a deterministic trend (with structural breaks) and a stochastic trend (with and without regime switching), that the long term growth rate would be marginally below that rank (somewhat superior to 4 per cent) and with a moderate adjustment velocity when the activity relays far from the steady state (up to one year).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11114.
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2008
Date of revision: 14 Aug 2008
Economía; Ciclos; Crecimiento; Tendencia; Filtro de Kalman;
Other versions of this item:
- Byron Idrovo A., 2010. "¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christian Johnson, 2001.
"Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile,"
Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía,
Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
- Christian A. Johnson, 2000. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 84, Central Bank of Chile.
- Perron, Pierre, 1990.
"Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
- Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
- Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.