¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta
[Which is the growth of long term of the Chilean economy?]
AbstractThe objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in most recent months. We conclude formally, from the use of univariate time series models –including a deterministic trend (with structural breaks) and a stochastic trend (with and without regime switching), that the long term growth rate would be marginally below that rank (somewhat superior to 4 per cent) and with a moderate adjustment velocity when the activity relays far from the steady state (up to one year).
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11114.
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2008
Date of revision: 14 Aug 2008
Economía; Ciclos; Crecimiento; Tendencia; Filtro de Kalman;
Other versions of this item:
- Byron Idrovo A., 2010. "¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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- Christian Johnson, 2001.
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Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía,
Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
- Christian A. Johnson, 2000. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 84, Central Bank of Chile.
- Perron, P., 1989.
"Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean,"
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- Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
- Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
- Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
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