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Broadband delivered entertainment services: forecasting Australian subscription intentions

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  • Madden, Gary G
  • Simpson, Michael
  • Savage, Scott

Abstract

This study estimates a nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of broadband delivered entertainment service subscription that allows for the impact of an installation fee and rental price, service attributes and household demographic variables on subscription. The model is estimated on stated-preference data obtained from an Australia-wide survey of capital cities and provincial centres. Nested multinomial logit model estimates are used to provide forecasts that suggest 65 per cent of separate residences passed are likely to subscribe at 2000. This percentage translates into 1237 744 subscriber.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10915.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published in The Economic Record 243.78(2002): pp. 422-432
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10915

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Keywords: Broadband entertainment services; forecasting Australian subscription demand;

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  1. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D., 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304.
  2. Harvey S. Rosen & Kenneth A. Small, 1979. "Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 0319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Fry, T.R.L. & Harris, M.N., 1994. "Testing for Independence or Irrelevent Alternatives: Some Empirical Results," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics 2/94, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  5. Adamowicz, Wiktor L. & Boxall, Peter C. & Williams, Michael & Louviere, Jordan, 1995. "Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments versus Contingent Valuation," Staff Paper Series, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology 24126, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  6. Madden, Gary, 1995. "Experimentation in Economics: An Overview of the Stated-Preference Experimental Design Method," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(64), pages 120-35, June.
  7. Lee, Paul S. N., 1997. "The development of cable television in Australia: A tripartite model of interactions," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 59-70, February.
  8. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
  9. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
  10. Bhat, Chandra R., 1995. "A heteroscedastic extreme value model of intercity travel mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 471-483, December.
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  12. Wiktor Adamowicz & Peter Boxall & Michael Williams & Jordan Louviere, 1998. "Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments and Contingent Valuation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 64-75.
  13. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Mixed Logit With Repeated Choices: Households' Choices Of Appliance Efficiency Level," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 647-657, November.
  14. Hensher, David A, 1986. "Sequential and Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Nested Logit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 657-67, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Pratompong Srinuan & Chalita Srinuan & Erik Bohlin, 2011. "The Mobile Broadband and Fixed Broadband Battle in Swedish Market: Complementary or substitution?," RSCAS Working Papers, European University Institute 2011/36, European University Institute.
  2. Gary Madden & Grant Coble-Neal, 2005. "Australian Residential Telecommunications Consumption and Substitution Patterns," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 325-347, October.

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