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Optimal investment timing using Markov jump price processes

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Author Info
Fernando A. C. C. Fonte () (Departamento de Matemática para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Universidade do Minho, Portugal)
Dalila B. M. M. Fontes () (LIAAD and Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, Portugal)
Abstract

In this work, we address an investment problem where the investment can either be made immediately or postponed to a later time, in the hope that market conditions become more favourable. In our case, uncertainty is introduced through market price. When the investment is undertaken, a fixed sunk cost must be paid and a series of cash flows are to be received. Therefore, we are faced with an irreversible investment. Real options analysis provides an adequate framework for this type of problems by recognizing these two characteristics, uncertainty and irreversibility, explicitly. We describe algorithmic solutions for this type of problems by modelling market prices evolution by Markov jump processes.

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Paper provided by Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto in its series FEP Working Papers with number 245.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:245

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Related research
Keywords: Irreversible investment optimal stopping dynamic programming Markov jump processes

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy

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This page was last updated on 2008-11-5.


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